Preseason predictions: What we got right, wrong about F1 2025

As with most sports, Formula 1 is increasingly a sport about hot takes and bold predictions. ESPN made its own ahead of the 2025 season, a year that started amid a huge wave of excitement around the unpredictable nature of the upcoming championship. The August break is always a good chance to reassess and take stock of where F1 is, so how did we do? Here's a look at our bold predictions, and why they have or haven't quite worked out right just yet.

Verstappen will leave Red Bull

What we said then: "If Red Bull's 2024 wobbles spill over into 2025, or doubts about the Ford partnership grow, other teams will smell blood in the water ... Max Verstappen might see a perfect moment for a change of scenery, even if he has to do a Lewis Hamilton and sign for a season or two down the line. Watch this space."

How did we do? This one was wrong, but we were on the right lines. Verstappen's future dominated much of the run-in to the summer break for the exact reason we outlined: Mercedes boss Toto Wolff spied an opportunity to wrestle the Dutchman away from Red Bull as the team struggled. That outcome for 2026 was never as likely as some made out, and Verstappen's championship position going into the break ruled it out entirely; a clause in his contract would have allowed him to walk away from the team had he been fourth, not third, in the drivers' championship at this point in the season. Even had he triggered that clause, it's unlikely he would have tied himself down to a team without seeing the competitive order next season, when new rules will effectively make everything a clean slate.

This one can safely be put on ice. The idea of Verstappen leaving will resurface quickly next season if Red Bull is significantly off the pace in the early days of the new regulation cycle.

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Leclerc will win two races before Hamilton wins one

What we said then: "The notion Hamilton lost a step over the past few years is unfounded. He should win plenty of races for Ferrari, but a slow start relative to Charles Leclerc seems a fair prediction given where both men are coming into their first year as teammates."

How did we do? That all depends how you classify a sprint race; Hamilton won one of those in China early in the season, but neither he nor Leclerc have claimed victory in a grand prix this year. When we wrote this ahead of the season, we certainly weren't thinking about sprints; Ferrari came into the season with a dream driver partnership and had narrowly missed out on the constructors' championship in 2024. The hype was at fever pitch: most thought Ferrari would be competitive. That hasn't quite been the case.

The sentiment around this prediction was that Leclerc would not need as much time to adjust as Hamilton and would be able to capitalize on that with a race-winning car. Only half of that has proven to be true: Bar Shanghai and the odd weekend here and there, Leclerc has been comfortably the better of the two drivers and went into the summer break in red hot form. Hamilton, by contrast, sounded like a man lacking belief in himself and hinting at wider frustrations with Ferrari behind the scenes.

Now, it seems difficult to suggest Ferrari could win multiple races before the year ends. Should they do it, we'd still stand by this prediction; Leclerc seems much readier to capitalize should Ferrari suddenly find itself competing up with the McLarens after the break.

Piastri willl lead the championship at the summer break

What we said this: "If the cool and composed Oscar Piastri can sort out his inconsistency problem, expect to see the exciting Australian underlining his credentials as a driver with championship pedigree."

How did we do? Nailed it. Piastri went into the break nine points ahead of Lando Norris and has looked like a champion-in-waiting for most of the year. So, was it that bold a prediction in the first place? It was, if you remember the feeling going into the year. Norris was the bookies' favorite and seemed to be the easy bet to be fighting Verstappen and Red Bull to the title. Norris' 2024 had been a breakout season, with three wins, including a clutch drive at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix that secured McLaren the constructors' championship.

The rap on Piastri had been simple: the incredibly talented Australian had struggled for consistency in his first two years. That's not been the case in 2025. His old qualifying issues have disappeared and Piastri has looked phenomenal for most of the year. By contrast, the errors that overshadowed Norris last year have followed him into this season. At one stage it looked like the British driver was crumbling under the pressure of having a title-worthy car. To Norris' credit, a strong run-in before the break has narrowed the gap, but in a straight choice between the two McLaren teammates, it's still difficult to look past Piastri still being top of the pile when the season ends in December.

Alonso will take Aston Martin back to the podium

What we said then: "We are not expecting to see Aston Martin dramatically vault up the order, but the lead pack has converged, and opportunities could present themselves if the team in British racing green can take a step forward. If that happens, Fernando Alonso is exactly the man you want in the cockpit."

How did we do? Obviously, the smarter prediction in March would have been to say Nico Hülkenberg would take Sauber back to the podium, right? Alonso has not been back -- in fact, he did not even have a point to his name until the Spanish Grand Prix in June. Alonso has looked more like his old self since, but Aston Martin has been bogged down in the competitive midfield fight all season, a long way off the leading four teams. A major change to that after the break seems unlikely. With former Ferrari technical director Enrico Cardile finally working alongside dynastic designer Adrian Newey at the team's new Silverstone factory, owner Lawrence Stroll's technical dream team is in place. All eyes appear to be on 2026.

A rookie will win a race

What we said then: "If the Mercedes can put its car in the place needed for wins, Kimi Antonelli seems like the kind of special talent who could make a name for himself immediately. Then there's someone who, officially, is a rookie: Red Bull's Liam Lawson."

How did we do? The premise behind this call changed fairly dramatically after just two races: Lawson was dropped by Red Bull back to the junior team. The rationale behind this prediction had been simple: Lawson and Antonelli both had cars that, the feeling went in March, might well be in victory contention with some early progress in car development. Opportunities would have surely presented themselves.

Lawson never got a chance to deliver, although Verstappen appears to be the only driver who can do anything remotely competitive with that Red Bull. As for Mercedes, Antonelli has shown incredible flashes and he does seem like he can be a superstar in the future. Mercedes' only win of the year went to George Russell in Canada, where Antonelli scored his first Formula 1 podium. It was a landmark moment, although his form has dropped off a cliff since then. With Lawson down at Racing Bulls, Antonelli is the only hope of this prediction coming true by the end of the year. If Mercedes gets itself in position to win a race before then, it would be hard to imagine it being anyone other than Russell who capitalized again, though.